Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.326884 0.381336 0.440535 0.509479 0.587365 0.672420 0.772119
2025-05-04 0.250419 0.320945 0.403644 0.507050 0.632102 0.777619 0.958870
2025-05-11 0.193820 0.272252 0.371150 0.503319 0.673421 0.882919 1.158114
2025-05-18 0.141206 0.218539 0.323714 0.474102 0.679992 0.947944 1.318242
2025-05-25 0.100514 0.172399 0.278182 0.440201 0.676049 0.999906 1.469678
2025-06-01 0.075819 0.144057 0.252525 0.429917 0.703361 1.097723 1.695244
2025-06-08 0.056564 0.119603 0.228056 0.417459 0.726254 1.193106 1.930239
2025-06-15 0.045429 0.106344 0.219178 0.428389 0.786996 1.352072 2.276711
2025-06-22 0.032580 0.085884 0.193333 0.406338 0.792026 1.427465 2.507394
2025-06-29 0.023963 0.071221 0.174779 0.393739 0.811255 1.528160 2.789526
2025-07-06 0.017346 0.058531 0.156925 0.378940 0.824485 1.620895 3.069582
2025-07-13 0.013740 0.052021 0.150759 0.386457 0.880467 1.793744 3.501451
2025-07-20 0.010217 0.044259 0.140082 0.383650 0.919038 1.945458 3.922095
2025-07-27 0.007854 0.038837 0.133661 0.389277 0.976245 2.139217 4.438713
2025-08-03 0.005955 0.033840 0.126827 0.392678 1.029967 2.333664 4.977666
2025-08-10 0.004017 0.027126 0.112544 0.374179 1.033144 2.430954 5.347734
2025-08-17 0.002576 0.021128 0.097836 0.350568 1.020589 2.495482 5.662985
2025-08-24 0.001810 0.017741 0.090449 0.345490 1.051464 2.654066 6.178298
2025-08-31 0.001237 0.014713 0.082913 0.337945 1.075145 2.800440 6.683717
2025-09-07 0.000956 0.013359 0.081528 0.349505 1.150361 3.068607 7.462595
2025-09-14 0.000598 0.010595 0.072407 0.332914 1.147823 3.162074 7.886150
2025-09-21 0.000386 0.008685 0.066049 0.323879 1.164544 3.301864 8.420845
2025-09-28 0.000239 0.007008 0.059673 0.312650 1.172957 3.423003 8.925741